NEW DELHI: The advancement of Census in the four poll-bound states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa – coupled with deferment of first phase of Census in the fifth poll-bound state of Manipur – has essentially cemented the schedule for the next round of assembly elections in the five states to Feb-March next year.Among the five states, the term of the Manipur assembly is expiring the earliest – on March 13, 2027. The term of Goa assembly ends March 14, 2027; Punjab assembly on March 16; Uttarakhand on March 28; and Uttar Pradesh only on May 22. All five had gone to polls together in 2022, but the first sitting of the UP assembly was on May 22, 2022.Since 2027 polls in these states will also be simultaneous, Election Commission is likely to take the conventional route of winding up polls before the earliest assembly expiry date – March 13.
UP will vote almost 2 months before House term expires
Thus, the UP polls would be held almost two months before the date of expiry of its assembly. This is in keeping with the pattern of the last three polls. EC’s constitutional mandate allows it to hold a state poll anytime within six months prior to the expiry of its assembly’s term.Given that a large and populous state like UP is almost certain to have multi-phase polling – though with fewer phases, going by the precedent set by EC in Bihar and West Bengal – polling could start in Feb or even in the beginning of March in case EC decides to restrict polls to two phases, like in Bihar. The poll announcement may come in Jan 2027.Since SIR has already been completed in three poll-bound states and is under way in the other two, EC is unlikely to go for annual summary revision there ahead of announcing assembly polls. At the end of SIR, the electorate in UP stood at 13.4 crore (decline of 13.2%), in Goa 10.6 lakh (10.2% less) and in Manipur 19.3 lakh (7.6% fall). The final rolls for Punjab and Uttarakhand will be published over the next couple of months.
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Centre had yesterday notified its decision to advance the population enumeration phase of Census 2027 in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, non-snow-bound areas of Uttarakhand and Goa, to the period between Dec 1, 2026, and Jan 4, 2027, with Jan 5 as the reference date. It also notified the deferment of the houselisting phase of Census in Manipur.The advancing of the population enumeration phase in the four other poll-bound states will avert the logistical challenges that would have arisen on account of a clash between the usual timeline for Census and the assembly elections. Both elections and Census rely on the same pool of govt employees – largely teachers – for their conduct.Conventionally, the second phase of Census is held countrywide in Feb, with March 1 as the reference date.
