Deep in the remote deserts of Xinjiang, China is quietly building what analysts believe could become one of the most sophisticated nuclear support networks in the world. Newly reviewed satellite images examined by Reuters reveal more than 80 launch pads and three large octagon-shaped military facilities spread across thousands of square kilometres near the Hami nuclear missile silo field. Major Gaurav Arya explains that the construction is aimed at enhancing China’s “land-based second-strike capability” — the ability to launch retaliatory nuclear missiles even after suffering a first strike. While China already possesses nuclear submarines, bombers and ground-based missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, Arya says the new desert facilities would provide additional launch options from remote locations if existing military installations were damaged. He also pointed to China’s rapid military expansion, arguing that Beijing is investing heavily across land, sea, air and space domains while significantly increasing its nuclear capabilities.
Here’s the breakdown by Major Gaurav Arya:
China is pumping in billions upon billions of dollars to expand its military capabilities, be it on land, sea, air, and even space. What exactly do they want? And when China says that by twenty thirty they want to have one thousand nuclear warheads, what is the reason behind that? Hi, I’m Major Gaurav Arya. You’re watching Open Collar. Eighty launch pads, three octagon-shaped installations. Satellite images show alarming Chinese buildup near nuclear silos. So this is what they’re talking about, this octagonal shape. And deep in China’s remote desert, a massive military construction project is underway that experts believe is aimed at ensuring the country can still launch a nuclear response, even if its nuclear facilities are attacked first by the United States. Now, this has been reported by Reuters. The thing is that they want on-land second strike capability. I’m making this as generic as possible, as easy to understand and digest as possible, right? So China has nuclear submarines, China has bombers that are capable of, of firing a nuclear weapon, of shooting a nuclear weapon, and China has ground-based nuclear weapons also, which are intercontinental ballistic missiles or intermediate-range ballistic missiles or cruise missiles and other things. But here what we’re talking about is that China says near its populated areas or near its military installations, if its nuclear response capability is damaged or absent China has locations which are far away from the previous location so that China can still strike back. That is what China is aiming for, and, uh, there is massive construction going on. China already possesses missiles capable of reaching anywhere in the US. However, newly reviewed satellite images show Beijing is significantly strengthening the infrastructure that supports its nuclear missile force. The launch pads could be used by mobile missile launchers and air defense systems, while the larger facilities may support communications, electronic warfare, and military command functions, according to security analysts who reviewed the imagery. Experts say that the scale of the construction suggests China is creating a far more resilient network for its land-based nuclear forces. This is what I said, land-based. So when we generally speak about second strike capability, we say, “Okay, India has let us say, nuclear submarines, which can do the job. Or Russia has nuclear submarines, or America or China has nuclear submarines that can do the job.” So if the land is under threat, you launch from the water. China has systems by which it can do all of that, and now it’s creating systems here by which it can also fire retaliatory missiles from the land itself. The goal appears to be ensuring that China’s nuclear arsenal remains operational even if some facilities are destroyed in the first strike. So this is a land-based second strike that China is talking about here. Why is China building launch pads near its nuclear missile silos? And what do satellite images reveal about sites with over 80 launch pads? So they say that satellite images reviewed by Reuters reveal a sprawling system of launch pads, bunkers, communication facilities and support structures near China’s nuclear missile silos in Xinjiang and Gansu. China has long maintained a policy of keeping relatively small but credible nuclear deterrent. The country’s nuclear strategy is based on its ability to respond to a nuclear attack rather than launch one first. So like India has no first use policy, China follows the same policy. No first use. China says we must have a credible response in place, a nuclear response in place should we be attacked by an enemy power, in this case, the United States of America. China’s nuclear arsenal has been expanding rapidly in the recent years, according to the latest Pentagon assessment cited by Reuters, China is expected to possess around one thousand nuclear warheads by twenty thirty. So this is the layout of what China wishes to do. One thousand nuclear warheads in the shape of missiles, uh, be they cruise missiles, IRBMs, ICBMs, more than one thousand in the next four years. The report also estimates that approximately one hundred ICBMs have already been deployed across China’s three main missile silo fields. What India is doing in this regard is, um, something very different. Of course, we also have our nuclear capabilities, but India is arming countries which have some sort of a dispute, mostly territorial, be it land or maritime with China. India sold, uh, the BrahMos missile systems. It has sold it to Vietnam very recently. Before that, it was the Philippines, and now apparently Indonesia wants the BrahMos missiles. The BrahMos capacity is increasing. The range is increasing. The speed is increasing. What we saw in Operation Sindoor was roughly three Mach to 3.5 Mach. What India is building now, going further, is more than five Mach. So you have a hypersonic cruise missile which can go up to 900 or 1,000 kilometers. That is the strike capacity and capability of a BrahMos or will be in the coming years Never seen anything like it. Satellite pics show China’s buildup near nuke silos. Analysts view the construction as part of China’s broader effort to strengthen its second-strike capability, the ability to launch a retaliatory nuclear attack after absorbing an enemy strike. At the heart of the new network are two large octagon-shaped military facilities built over the past six years in eastern Xinjiang. One lies roughly one forty kilometers southwest of the Hami silo field, while the second is located about two hundred and thirty kilometers away. If you look at the map of Afghanistan, you’ll see that, north of Kabul is Bagram, and that is what the Pakistanis had promised the Americans, which is why there is violence going on between between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan says that they’re striking deep inside, the Afghan heartland simply because the Afghans support the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan, which is attacking Pakistan. It’s a terror outfit. It’s a- attacking Pakistan. Afghans won’t listen, so we are attacking the Afghans in retaliation. That is what Pakistan claims. But the TTP has been attacking Pakistan for nearly eighteen to nineteen years now. There’s nothing new in the TTP attacking Pakistan. Why did Pakistan respond after eighteen years? Why not when the TTP was, was created? Why no strikes deep in the Afghan heartland? Why not earlier? Why today? Why now? Simply because Donald Trump wants Bagram. It’s natural for Donald Trump to want Bagram. He can’t have it. That’s another question. But he wants Bagram because Bagram is not very far from these areas. So the Northwest Nuclear Technology Institute, Lop Nor Nuclear Weapon Test Site. Lop Nor is the place where, like we have Pokhran, the Chinese have Lop Nor And all these places where they have their, uh, nuclear assets in place, possible warhead assembly and production facility. And DF-3A, DF-21A. DF is Dongfeng. It is their missile series. The southern octagon is connected to a broader logistics network that includes railway lines, a rail terminal, fuels storage facilities, and reinforced underground structures. According to the Pentagon, the country’s Huyan One satellite network can detect incoming intercontinental ballistic missile within roughly ninety seconds of launch and can transmit warnings to command centers within minutes. Meanwhile, a third octagon-shaped installation located near the Lop Nor nuclear test site appears to serve a different purpose. Satellite images show damaged structures, cratered terrain, and mock-ups of Western fighter aircraft, leading analysts to conclude that the area is likely being used as a military target range. Lop Nor is the are where Chinese do all their testing right here China’s expanding nuclear capabilities implications for India’s response. China finished the development and operationalization of its new fast breeder reactors, the CFR-600, which receive Russian fuel support. This assistance will substantially augment the country’s weapons-grade plutonium inventory. Russia started shipping out the initial fuel load in late December 2022. So Russia is giving material to China. FBRs are crucial because they produce more plutonium and fissile material than they consume during power generation. This is exactly what India did two months back. India will need to reconsider its glacial accumulation of atomic weapons to reach a target of six hundred and eighty to eight hundred weapons by twenty thirty-six. India’s warhead numbers increased by an average of nearly hundred warheads annually over the same period, while India’s stock increased by an average of ten warheads. China is building warheads ten times faster than India. Ten times faster. Russia has five thousand four hundred and fifty-nine warheads. When I say warheads, I mean nuclear warheads. US has five thousand two hundred and seventy-seven. China has six hundred. France has two ninety. The UK has two hundred and twenty-five. India has one eighty. Pakistan has one seventy. Israel ninety, and North Korea fifty. So this is how the nuclear warheads stack up. A total of twelve thousand one hundred and eighty-seven warheads in the world India remains in the testing phase of its hypersonic missile capabilities. So we are still testing it, and they are a few years down the line. The hypersonic cruise missile has completed a 1,000-second test, but it’s still awaiting government approval. I, I don’t like these lines at all. Awaiting government approval. More crucially, even after clearance, it is likely to take seven years before being fully operationalized. An Indian HGV, now this is a glide vehicle. This is different. The HGV capability is at a more advanced stage, having undergone an initial developmental trial and is expected to be inducted in two or three years following additional trials. Beyond hypersonic missiles already under development, India will need at a minimum to place a higher premium on three sets of capabilities, sensors, missile defense against hypersonic missiles, and the sub-service leg of its nuclear forces. We are assuming that all these, whether it’s the hypersonic glide vehicle or we’re talking about the HCM, the cruise missile, all of them are nuclear capable. That is the assumption here. India is in possession of the Swordfish long-range tracking radar developed by the Defense Research and Development Organization and the Bharat Electronics Limited and active electronically scanned array endows the Swordfish LRTR with the capability to detect missiles at a range of one thousand five hundred kilometers or more and forms the core element of India’s BMD network. More such, like the INS Dhruv and INS Anweshing surface vessels are required for tracking and intercepting ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Further, the future Project Eighteen class guided missile destroyers of the Indian Navy will be armed with sea-based BMD capabilities for the first time. Now coming to the range of the Agni V missile, many Chinese reports say that the Agni V’s range is not between five thousand five hundred to eight thousand kilometers as claimed by India. They’re saying it’s much, much more, but India is hiding facts. This is what, the Chinese are saying. Weight is fifty thousand kilograms, speed twenty-four Mach, length seventeen point five meters, engine three-stage solid, nuclear warhead is one and a half tons, and diameter is two meters. So this is what Agni V is doing. India is also speaking about Agni VI. There was a comment by DRDO saying that they’re waiting for government approval, and then they can go to Agni VI. They said that we have all the technology sorted out. All we need is a thumbs up from the government, and then we go all guns blazing for Agni VI. This is all that I have for you today in Open Collar. Thank you for watching, and I’ll catch you very soon with another special episode. Till then, Jai Hind.
